ASSAYING THE ECONOMY
| MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
|
| INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION |
-0.5 |
+0.4R |
+0.1R |
+0.1 |
Up 2.3% from January 2007 |
| CAPACITY
UTILIZATION |
81.4 |
81.6 |
81.5R |
81.5 |
Up from 81.1 last
January |
| FACTORY
ORDERS |
+0.7 |
+1.7 |
+2.0R |
-2.5 |
Shipments +1.1%; Backlog +6.8% |
| DURABLE GOODS
ORDERS |
-0.5 |
+0.5 |
+4.4R |
-5.1 |
Capital goods -9.6% |
| BUSINESS
SALES |
+0.9 |
+1.4R |
-0.5 |
NR |
Up 6.0% from December 2006 |
| BUSINESS
INVENTORIES |
+0.1 |
+0.4 |
+0.6 |
NR |
Up 4.0% from December 2006 |
| INVENTORY /
SALES RATIO |
1.26 |
1.25R |
1.26 |
NR |
Down from 1.28 last December |
| ISM MFG INDEX |
50.4 |
50.0 |
48.4 |
50.7 |
Feb: 48.3; losing more ground |
| ISM NMI Business Activity |
55.5 |
54.6 |
54.4 |
41.9 |
Feb: 50.8; down from 54.9 February 2007 |
| CONSUMER ACTIVITY: |
|
|
|
|
|
| INCOME |
+0.2 |
+0.3R |
+0.5 |
+0.3 |
Disposable income +0.1% |
| SPENDING |
+0.3 |
+0.9R |
+0.3R |
+0.4 |
Durables -1.2%; services +0.6% |
| CREDIT |
+0.2 |
+0.7 |
+0.1 |
+0.3 |
Up 5.4% from last January |
| CONFIDENCE |
95.2 |
87.8 |
90.6 |
87.3 |
Feb: 75.0; five year low |
| RETAIL SALES |
0.0 |
+0.8R |
-0.4 |
+0.3 |
Up 3.9% from year ago period |
| UNEMPLOYMENT RATE |
4.8 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
Feb: 4.8%; 63K jobs lost; -85K YTD |
| CONSTRUCTION: |
|
|
|
|
|
| HOUSING STARTS |
+7.8 |
-7.5R |
-14.8R |
+0.8 |
1.012 million; off 27.9% from January
2007 |
| BUILDING PERMITS |
-7.2 |
-0.7 |
-7.1R |
-3.0 |
1.048 million; off 33.1% from January
2007 |
| NEW HOME SALES |
+4.6 |
-13.1R |
-4.0R |
-2.8 |
588K; off 33.9% from last January |
| EXISTING HOME SALES |
-1.0 |
-0.8R |
-2.2 |
-0.4 |
4.89 million; off 23.4% from last
January |
| CONSTRUCTION SPENDING |
-0.9R |
-0.1R |
-1.3R |
-1.7 |
Down 3.3% from January 2007 |
| PRICES: |
|
|
|
|
|
| PRODUCER PRICE INDEX |
+0.5R |
+2.6R |
-0.3R |
+1.0 |
Up 7.4% from January 2007; Core rate
+2.3% |
| CONSUMER PRICE INDEX |
+0.3 |
+0.9R |
+0.4R |
+0.4 |
Up 4.3% from January 2007; core rate
+2.5% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| LEADING
INDICATORS:
|
-0.6R |
-0.4R |
-0.1R |
-0.1 |
Points toward further weakness |
|
AUTOMOTIVE: |
|
|
|
|
|
| SALES |
+1.2 |
-1.6 |
-2.9 |
-2.9 |
2008 YTD 1.059 million Vs 2007 1.091
million; -2.9% |
| PRODUCTION |
+0.1 |
+2.4 |
-11.5 |
-1.8 |
2008 YTD .852 million Vs 2007 .868
million; -1.8% |
|
INTERNATIONAL TRADE: |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
|
| IMPORTS ($ IN BILLIONS) |
+0.7 |
+1.0 |
+2.9R |
-1.1 |
2007 $2.333 trillion Vs 2006 $2.204
trillion; +5.9% |
| EXPORTS |
+0.8 |
+0.9 |
+0.5R |
+1.5 |
2007 $1.622 trillion Vs 2006 $1.446
trillion; +12.2% |
| NET DEFICIT |
+0.3 |
+1.1 |
+8.7R |
-6.9 |
2007 $ 711 billion Vs 2006 $ 758
billion; -6.2% |
| THE MACRO
VIEW |
1Q 07 |
2Q 07 |
3Q 07 |
4Q 07 |
|
| GDP |
1.1 |
2.1 |
0.6 |
4.0 R |
2007: +2.2%; slowest rate of growth
since 2002 |
| CORPORATE PROFITS A/T |
0.6 |
-3.9 |
1.5 |
55.4 |
2Q revised down from +5.4% |
| PRODUCTIVITY |
-1.6 R |
1.8 R |
0.7 R |
11.8 |
Up 2.9% from 4Q 2006 |
Figures are in percent, representing change from prior period or
index reading within period, except automotive which is change from
same month, prior year. March
8, 2008
NR -- Not Released R -- Revised
(3)